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7. Literatur

Anderberg, M. R., 1973: Cluster Analysis for Applications. Academic Press New York and London, 359 pp.

Annette, P., 1978: CYCLOGUE - Analogic Prediction of the Course of Tropical Cyclones by National Meteorological Analysis Centre, Melbourne. Technical Report 28, Department of Science, Bureau of Meteorology, 22 pp.

Annette, P., 1981: The Effect of Using an Enlarged Tropical Cyclone Data Base for Analogue Retrieval. Meteorological Note 133, Department of Science and Technology, Bureau of Meteorology, 12 pp.

Anthes, R. A., 1982: Tropical Cyclones: Their Evolution, Structure and Effects. Meteor. Monogr., No. 41, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 208 pp.

Aoki, T., 1979: A statistical prediction of the tropical cyclone position based on persistence and climatological factor in the western North Pacific (the PC method). Geophys. Mag., 38, No.4, 17 - 27.

Asnani, G. C., 1993: Tropical Meteorological Vol. 2, Chapter 9. Pune: Noble Printers

Bengtsson, L., Botzet, M. and Esch, M., 1994: Hurricane-Type Vortices in a General Circulation Model, Part I. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie Hamburg, Report No. 123, 42pp.

Brown, G. M. and Leftwich, P. W., 1982: A compilation of eastern and central North Pacifictropical cyclone data. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 16

Chan, J. C. L. and Gray, W. M., 1982: Tropical Cyclone Movement and Surrounding Flow Relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1354-1374.

DeMaria, M., Lawrence, M. B. and Kroll, J. T., 1990: An Error Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 47 - 61.

Dunn, G. E. and Miller, B. I., 1960: Atlantic Hurricanes. Louisiana State University Press, 320 pp.

Dvorak, V.F., 1975: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis and Forecasting from Satellite Imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 420 - 430.

Elsberry, R. L.(Ed.), Frank, W. M., Holland, G. J., Jarrell, J. D. and Southern, R. L., 1987: A Global View of Tropical Cyclones. University of Chicago Press, 185 pp.

Elsberry, R. L. and Peak, J. E., 1986: An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Aids Based on Cross-Track and Along-Track Components. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 147 - 155.

Fiorino, M. and Elsberry, R. L., 1989: Some Aspects of Vortex Structure Related to Tropical Cyclone Motion. Journ. of the Atm. Sciences, 46, No. 7, 975 - 990.

Fraedrich, K. and Leslie, L. M., 1987: Combining Predictive Schemes in Short-Term Forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1640 - 1644.

Fraedrich, K. and Leslie, L. M., 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 115, 79-92.

Fraedrich, K. and Leslie, L. M., 1998: Improved Tropical Cyclone Track Predictions by Error Recycling. Wea. Forecasting, 13, in press

Fraedrich, K. and Rückert, B., 1998: Metric Adaption for Analog Forecasting. Physica A in press

Fraedrich, K. und Ziehmann, C., 1994: Predictability experiments of persistence forecasts in a red noise atmosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 387 - 428.

Goerss, J. S. and Jeffries, R. L., 1994: Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 557 - 576.

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Holland, G. J., 1983: Tropical Cyclone Motion: Environmental Interaction Plus a Beta Effect. Journ. of the Atm. Sciences, 40, 328 - 342.

Holland, G. J., Leslie, L. M., Ritchie, E. A., Dietachmayer, G. S., Powers, P. E. and Klink, M., 1991: An Interactive Analysis and Forecast System for Tropical Cyclone Motion. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 415 - 424.

Hope, J. R. and Neumann, C. J., 1970: An Operational Technique for Relating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to Past Tracks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98, No. 12, 925 - 933.

Hope, J. R. and Neumann, C. J., 1971: Computer Methods applied to Atlantic Area Tropical Storm and Hurricane Climatology. Mariners Weather Log, 15, 272 - 278.

Hope, J. R. and Neumann, C. J., 1977: A Survey of World Wide Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models. Preprints 11th Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami Beach, AMS, 367 - 374.

Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann, C. J. and Davies, M. A. S., 1984: A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886 - 1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses. NOAA Tech. Memo., NWS NHC 22.

Keenan, T. D. and Woodcock, F., 1981: Objective Tropical Cyclone Movement Forecasts Using Synoptic and Track Analogue Information. Meteorological Note 121, Department of Science and Technology, Bureau of Meteorology, 7 pp.

Krishnamurti, T. N., Correa-Torres, R., Rohaly, G., Oosterhof, D. and Surgi, N., 1997: Physical Initialization and Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 503-514.

Landsea, C. W., 1993: A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1703 - 1713.

Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical Skill of Monte Carlo Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, No. 6, 409 - 418.

Leslie, L. M. and Fraedrich, K., 1990: Reduction of Tropical Cyclone Position Errors Using an Optimal Combination of Independent Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 158 - 161.

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Leslie, L. M., Hess, G. D., Holland, G. J., Morison, R. P. and Fraedrich, K., 1992: Predicting changes in intensity of tropical cyclones using a Markov chain technique. Aust. Met. Mag. 40, 41 - 46.

Mañe, R., 1981: On the dimension of the compact invariant sets of certain non-linear maps. Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 898, 230, Springer Verlag New York.

Merrill, R. T., 1980: A statistical tropical cyclone motion forecasting system for the gulf of Mexico. NOAA, Tech. Memo., NWS NHC-14, 19 pp.

Neumann, C. J., 1972: An Alternate to the HURRAN (Hurrican Analog) Tropical Cyclone Forecast System. NOAA Tech. Memo., NWS SR-62.

Neumann, C. J., 1981: Trends in Forecasting the tracks of Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 1473 - 1485.

Neumann, C. J. and Hope, J. R., 1972: Performance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, No. 4, 245 - 255.

Neumann, C. J. and Leftwich, P. W., 1977: Statistical Guidance of the Prediction of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion - Part 1. NOAA, Tech. Memo, NWS WR-125, 32 pp.

Neumann, C. J. and Mandal, G. S., 1978: Statistical guidance for the prediction of tropical storm motion over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Indian J. Meteor. Hydrol. Geophys., 29, 487-500.

Neumann, C. J. and Pelissier, J. M., 1981 a: Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion over the North Atlantic: An operational Evaluation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 522 - 538.

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Neumann, C. J. and Randrianarison, E. A., 1976: Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the southwest Indian Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 76-85.

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Pike, A. C. and Neumann, C. J., 1987: The Variation of Track Forecast Difficulty among Tropical Cyclone Basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 237 - 241.

Raible, C. C., 1997: Stochastische Kürzestfristprognosen der Temperatur: Stationsvorhersage, Flächeninterpolation und Kombination mit dem Europamodell. Diplomarbeit am Meteorologischen Institut der Universität Hamburg, 85 pp.

Riehl, H., 1979: Climate and Weather in the Tropics. Academic Press, London, 611 pp.

Rückert, B., 1995: Nichtlineare Methoden in der Zeitreihenanalyse mit Anwendungen auf klimatologische Daten. Diplomarbeit am Meteorologischen Institut der Universität Hamburg, 102 pp.

Seewetteramt, 1989: Seewetter, Wetterkunde - Wetterkunde für die Berufs- und Sportschifffahrt. 4. Auflage, Kap. 7.3, DSV - Verlag GmbH, Hamburg.

Shapiro, L. J. and Neumann, C. J., 1984: On the Orientation of Grid Systems for the Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 188 - 199.

Thompson, P. D., 1977: How to Improve Accuracy by Combining Independent Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 228 - 229.

Wessel, P. and Smith, W. H. F., 1995: The Generic Mapping Tools GMT, Version 3. Technical Reference and Cookbook.

WMO, 1979: World Weather Watch, WMO Tropical Cyclone Project - Sub-Project No. 6, Operational Techniques for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Movement. WMO-No. 528, World Meteorological Organization.

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Xu, Y. and Neumann, C. J., 1985: A statistical model for the prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone motion (WPCLPR). NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-28, 30 pp.

Zhang, Z. and Krishnamurti, T. N., 1997: Ensemble Forecasting of Hurricane Tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 No. 12, 2785-2795.


Kap. 6 - Zusammenfassung Inhalt nach oben Anhang A - Erweiterung auf andere Bassins


© Oliver Sievers oliver.sievers(at)wetterkursus.de
Last modified: 10. Okt. 2005