Diploma Thesis

Actually all tropical easterly coasts in the world are strucked, so the Indian Ocean or Asia, where are colossal losts in human lifes (Bangladesh at Nov.,13. of 1970: 300 000 deaths), or middle america and south of United States, where is a prevailing of material loss (Hurricane Andrew 1992 with a damage of roughly $30 billion!).
The greatest problem is the forecast of the "land-fall", i.e. of that position the tropical storm hits the coast. In the moment of the thesis, there was an error of about 200 km in 24 hours.

The thesis desribes a so called self adapting analog model which has been developed in an elder work tp predict the dynamics of theoretical models. With my work the usage was expanded to atmospheric data. The program learns stand-alone to find that storm tracks out of a historical dataset which are optimal to describe the behaviour of a current storm.

The thesis was supervised by Dr. Richard Blender and Prof. Klaus Fraedrich, department for Theoretical Meteorology, University of Hamburg. Meanwhile the method is running there in operational mode.

An online version of my diploma thesis is available (only german version - sorry!). On the content page you'll find a reference for downloading a PDF-version of the whole paper.

• Track-Files in atlantic and pacific
• Hurricane Research Division - Abstracts of scientific works about hurricanes

• Something about 500000 links. Have a lot of fun with it!! ;o)