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Projects / Employers:

German Weather Service (DWD)
DWD / Remote Sensing
Met.-Inst. Univ. Hamburg
Max-Planck-Inst. f. Meteorology Hamburg

Personal Topics:

Curriculum Vitae
Diploma Thesis


Wenn der Hahn kräht...
Oliver Sievers


Diploma Thesis

The subjects of my diploma thesis are track forecasts of tropical cyclones, particularly of tropical storms.
If you realize the misery of these catastrophical events, you understand the necessary of a track forecast as good as possible. A hurricane of category 5 in Saffir-Simpson - scale reaches velocities in wind of more than 155 MPH! The ocean is been towered to storm surges up to 20 feet and more! This combination (strong wind and storm surge) accounts for the tropical storms' great destructions.

Actually all tropical easterly coasts in the world are strucked, so the Indian Ocean or Asia, where are colossal losts in human lifes (Bangladesh at Nov.,13. of 1970: 300 000 deaths), or middle america and south of United States, where is a prevailing of material loss (Hurricane Andrew 1992 with a damage of roughly $30 billion!).
The greatest problem is the forecast of the "land-fall", i.e. of that position the tropical storm hits the coast. In the moment of the thesis, there was an error of about 200 km in 24 hours.

The thesis desribes a so called self adapting analog model which has been developed in an elder work tp predict the dynamics of theoretical models. With my work the usage was expanded to atmospheric data. The program learns stand-alone to find that storm tracks out of a historical dataset which are optimal to describe the behaviour of a current storm.

The thesis was supervised by Dr. Richard Blender and Prof. Klaus Fraedrich, department for Theoretical Meteorology, University of Hamburg. Meanwhile the method is running there in operational mode.

An online version of my diploma thesis is available (only german version - sorry!). On the content page you'll find a reference for downloading a PDF-version of the whole paper.

A few links about tropical storms:
Not enough? Google et al give pages for months:

Oliver Sievers oliver.sievers (at)
Last modified: 11-JAN-2016